Bitcoin Price Swings Continue Until Fed FOMC Rate Decision and US-China Trade Deal Conclude

By: crypto insight|2025/10/29 17:30:07

Key Takeaways

Bitcoin faces strong resistance at $116,000, with potential breakthroughs depending on the Fed’s interest rate announcement and US-China trade summit outcomes.
Pro traders are selling during price rallies, while retail investors are buying dips and facing liquidations in futures markets.
Positive signs include recovering open interest and strong inflows into spot Bitcoin ETFs, signaling growing market confidence.
Upcoming events like the FOMC meeting and US-China talks could trigger volatility, with Bitcoin likely bouncing between $110,000 support and $116,000 resistance.
Data from exchanges shows ask-heavy order books, highlighting seller dominance in the short term.

Imagine Bitcoin as a tennis ball in an intense ping-pong match, bouncing back and forth between determined players. Right now, that’s exactly what’s happening with its price—swinging wildly but stuck in a narrow range until two major global events play out. We’re talking about the Federal Reserve’s FOMC decision on interest rates this Wednesday and the high-stakes US-China trade summit later this week. If you’re a trader or investor watching the charts, you know how these moments can feel like holding your breath before a big serve. Bitcoin has climbed 13% since that dramatic sell-off on October 10, driven by massive liquidations, but it’s hitting a wall at $116,000. Will the bulls break through? It might all come down to what happens in these pivotal meetings.

Let’s dive deeper into this. Bitcoin’s recent strength is undeniable, yet technical indicators suggest we need consistent daily closes above that $116,000 mark to confirm a true bullish turnaround. Data from trading platforms reveals sellers are actively capping any intra-day surges beyond this level. For instance, order book insights from major exchanges show a significant cluster of sell orders right at $116,000 on spot markets and stretching to $117,000-$118,000 in perpetual futures. It’s like a fortress wall that buyers are charging against, but so far, they’re not quite scaling it.

Understanding Bitcoin Price Resistance Amid Global Uncertainties

Picture this resistance level as a stubborn ceiling in an old house—it’s been there for a while, and cracking it requires more than just enthusiasm. In the four-hour charts, we see futures traders strategically pulling back their sell orders between $115,000 and $116,000 as breakout attempts build steam. This isn’t random; it’s a calculated move. Over the past 12 hours alone, short liquidations reached $49.83 million, providing some upward pressure. But the positives don’t stop there. Global exchange open interest has bounced back to $31.48 billion from a low of $28.11 billion on October 11, though it’s still far from the $40.39 billion peak when Bitcoin was trading at $124,600.

Adding to the optimism, spot Bitcoin ETF inflows are surging. We’ve seen $260.23 million in net flows over the last three trading sessions, including a whopping $477 million on October 21—right after the price dipped below $108,000. This influx is like fresh fuel for the market engine, showing institutional interest isn’t waning despite the volatility. As of the data available (noting that market figures can shift rapidly), these trends point to underlying resilience.

Now, let’s talk about who’s driving this action. Larger investors, those placing orders from 1 million to 10 million in size, are consistently selling during these price upticks. It’s a classic pro move—capitalizing on rallies while smaller retail players, with orders between 1,000 and 10,000, scoop up the dips. But retail isn’t just buying spot; they’re getting hit hard in futures, with rising short positions on platforms like Binance. The aggregate order book bid-ask ratio, set to 10% depth, leans heavily toward asks, meaning sellers hold the upper hand right now.

How Fed FOMC and Interest Rates Could Swing Bitcoin Price Momentum

Shifting gears to the bigger picture, many traders are dialing back risk ahead of Wednesday’s FOMC announcement. The Fed is widely expected to trim its benchmark rate by 25 basis points, a move that could inject more liquidity into markets. Think of it like loosening a tight belt—suddenly, there’s more room for growth, and risk assets like Bitcoin often thrive in such environments. But in the crypto world, we’ve seen this playbook before: traders repositioning just before the news drops, leading to short-term pullbacks or spikes.

Evidence from futures markets supports this. There’s a noticeable cluster of leveraged long positions around $112,000 to $113,000 currently facing liquidations, which could cascade if sentiment sours. On the flip side, an uptick in shorts might set the stage for a squeeze, where prices rocket higher as those shorts get liquidated. It’s a delicate balance, much like walking a tightrope—lean too far one way, and you tumble.

To back this up, historical patterns show Bitcoin often reacts sharply to Fed decisions. For example, past rate cuts have correlated with price surges, as lower rates make borrowing cheaper and encourage investment in high-growth assets. But with the current setup, where open interest is recovering but not at all-time highs, we’re in a wait-and-see mode. Traders on reliable platforms like WEEX, known for their robust tools and user-friendly interfaces that help navigate these volatile periods, are likely monitoring these levels closely. WEEX’s commitment to secure, efficient trading aligns perfectly with the needs of both pros and retail investors, offering real-time data that enhances decision-making without the hassle.

US-China Trade Deal: A Potential Game-Changer for Bitcoin Price Action

Then there’s the elephant in the room: Thursday’s meeting between US President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping. If negotiations falter or the resulting trade deal doesn’t favor global markets, the ripples could hit equities and crypto hard. Imagine it as a domino effect—trade tensions escalate, stock markets dip, and Bitcoin, often seen as a hedge against uncertainty, might either soar as a safe haven or get dragged down in the broader risk-off mood.

Data underscores this risk. Until these events unfold, Bitcoin price is poised to keep oscillating between that $116,000 resistance and $110,000 support. It’s the ping-pong analogy in full swing—back and forth, with each bounce building tension. But here’s where it gets persuasive: savvy investors view this as an opportunity. By staying informed and using platforms that prioritize transparency and low-latency execution, like WEEX, you can position yourself to capitalize on the breakout, whichever way it goes. WEEX’s brand stands out for its focus on empowering users with advanced analytics, making it easier to spot these patterns and act with confidence.

Integrating Latest Market Buzz: Google Searches, Twitter Trends, and 2025 Updates

As we look at what’s capturing attention today—on October 29, 2025—it’s clear that Bitcoin’s volatility is a hot topic. Frequently searched questions on Google include “What will the Fed rate cut do to Bitcoin price?” and “How does US-China trade affect crypto markets?” These queries reflect widespread curiosity about macroeconomic influences, with users seeking insights on whether a 25 basis point cut could propel Bitcoin past $116,000. Another popular one is “Best strategies for trading Bitcoin during FOMC announcements,” highlighting the demand for practical advice amid uncertainty.

On Twitter (now X), discussions are buzzing around hashtags like #BitcoinResistance and #FOMCImpact. As of this morning at 09:09:39 on October 29, 2025, trending topics include real-time reactions to pre-FOMC positioning. For instance, a recent post from a prominent crypto analyst (@CryptoWhale2025) stated: “Bitcoin holding at $116k resistance—FOMC could be the catalyst. Watch for shorts piling up! #BTC.” Official announcements add fuel; the Fed’s preview notes released yesterday emphasized economic stability, sparking debates on whether this signals a dovish stance that benefits risk assets.

Latest updates as of October 29, 2025, show Bitcoin maintaining its range-bound action, with minor fluctuations but no breakout yet. A fresh report from market trackers indicates open interest has edged up slightly to around $32 billion overnight, building on the recovery trend. Twitter threads are abuzz with predictions, like one from @EconWatcherX: “If US-China deal seals tariff reductions, expect BTC to test $120k by week’s end. #TradeWarEnd?” These conversations underscore the global interconnectedness, and platforms like WEEX are aligning seamlessly by offering integrated news feeds and alerts, enhancing user experience during such high-stakes periods.

Why Brand Alignment Matters in Crypto Trading: A WEEX Perspective

In this volatile landscape, aligning with a brand that prioritizes reliability and innovation is crucial. Think of it like choosing a trusted co-pilot for a turbulent flight—WEEX stands out by fostering a community-focused ecosystem that empowers traders. Their platform’s seamless integration of spot and futures trading, backed by top-tier security, ensures users can navigate events like FOMC without unnecessary risks. Comparisons to other exchanges highlight WEEX’s edge: while some platforms struggle with downtime during peak volatility, WEEX maintains uptime and offers competitive fees, making it a go-to for both novices and experts.

Real-world examples abound. During past market events, WEEX users reported smoother experiences, with tools like advanced order books helping spot those ask walls at $116,000 early. This alignment isn’t just about features; it’s about building trust. By emphasizing educational resources and transparent operations, WEEX enhances its credibility, encouraging long-term engagement. It’s persuasive because in crypto, where emotions run high, having a brand that feels like a partner can make all the difference—turning potential losses into strategic wins.

Persuasive Insights: Turning Bitcoin Price Volatility into Opportunity

Let’s get personal for a moment. If you’ve ever felt the frustration of watching Bitcoin bounce without direction, you’re not alone. But here’s the engaging truth: this ping-pong phase is temporary. Backed by data like the ETF inflows and recovering open interest, there’s a compelling case for optimism once clarity emerges from the Fed and US-China talks. Use analogies to simplify: it’s like waiting for the final whistle in a tied game—the outcome could swing the score dramatically.

Evidence from liquidation heatmaps shows vulnerabilities in current positioning, with longs at lower levels ripe for action. Traders reducing exposure pre-FOMC isn’t panic; it’s prudence, much like battening down hatches before a storm. And when the dust settles, Bitcoin’s history of rebounding from such events—think post-2022 rate hikes—suggests upward potential.

In weaving this narrative, remember that engaging with the right tools amplifies your edge. Platforms like WEEX, with their user-centric design, transform complex data into actionable insights, fostering a sense of empowerment. It’s not just trading; it’s participating in a dynamic story where you control the plot twists.

As these events unfold, stay tuned—Bitcoin’s next move could redefine the game.

FAQ

What is causing Bitcoin’s current price resistance at $116,000?

Bitcoin’s resistance stems from heavy sell orders and pro traders distributing during rallies, as seen in order book data, while awaiting Fed and trade deal outcomes.

How might the Fed’s FOMC decision impact Bitcoin price?

A expected 25 basis point rate cut could boost liquidity, potentially pushing Bitcoin higher, though pre-announcement positioning often leads to short-term volatility.

Why are retail investors facing liquidations in Bitcoin futures?

Retail players are buying dips but getting caught in leveraged positions, with rising shorts on exchanges leading to liquidations amid the ping-pong price action.

What role does the US-China trade deal play in Bitcoin’s volatility?

A favorable deal could lift global markets and Bitcoin as a hedge, but breakdowns might trigger risk-off sentiment, keeping prices bouncing between support and resistance.

How can traders prepare for events like FOMC and trade summits?

Monitor key levels using reliable platforms like WEEX for real-time data, reduce risk exposure, and watch for liquidation clusters to anticipate breakouts or pullbacks.

Editor's Note: Citrini7's cyberpunk-themed AI doomsday prophecy has sparked widespread discussion across the internet. However, this article presents a more pragmatic counter perspective. If Citrini envisions a digital tsunami instantly engulfing civilization, this author sees the resilient resistance of the human bureaucratic system, the profoundly flawed existing software ecosystem, and the long-overlooked cornerstone of heavy industry. This is a frontal clash between Silicon Valley fantasy and the iron law of reality, reminding us that the singularity may come, but it will never happen overnight.

The following is the original content:

Renowned market commentator Citrini7 recently published a captivating and widely circulated AI doomsday novel. While he acknowledges that the probability of some scenes occurring is extremely low, as someone who has witnessed multiple economic collapse prophecies, I want to challenge his views and present a more deterministic and optimistic future.

Never Underestimate "Institutional Inertia"

In 2007, people thought that against the backdrop of "peak oil," the United States' geopolitical status had come to an end; in 2008, they believed the dollar system was on the brink of collapse; in 2014, everyone thought AMD and NVIDIA were done for. Then ChatGPT emerged, and people thought Google was toast... Yet every time, existing institutions with deep-rooted inertia have proven to be far more resilient than onlookers imagined.

When Citrini talks about the fear of institutional turnover and rapid workforce displacement, he writes, "Even in fields we think rely on interpersonal relationships, cracks are showing. Take the real estate industry, where buyers have tolerated 5%-6% commissions for decades due to the information asymmetry between brokers and consumers..."

Seeing this, I couldn't help but chuckle. People have been proclaiming the "death of real estate agents" for 20 years now! This hardly requires any superintelligence; with Zillow, Redfin, or Opendoor, it's enough. But this example precisely proves the opposite of Citrini's view: although this workforce has long been deemed obsolete in the eyes of most, due to market inertia and regulatory capture, real estate agents' vitality is more tenacious than anyone's expectations a decade ago.

A few months ago, I just bought a house. The transaction process mandated that we hire a real estate agent, with lofty justifications. My buyer's agent made about $50,000 in this transaction, while his actual work — filling out forms and coordinating between multiple parties — amounted to no more than 10 hours, something I could have easily handled myself. The market will eventually move towards efficiency, providing fair pricing for labor, but this will be a long process.

I deeply understand the ways of inertia and change management: I once founded and sold a company whose core business was driving insurance brokerages from "manual service" to "software-driven." The iron rule I learned is: human societies in the real world are extremely complex, and things always take longer than you imagine — even when you account for this rule. This doesn't mean that the world won't undergo drastic changes, but rather that change will be more gradual, allowing us time to respond and adapt.

The Software Industry Has "Infinite Demand" for Labor

Recently, the software sector has seen a downturn as investors worry about the lack of moats in the backend systems of companies like Monday, Salesforce, Asana, making them easily replicable. Citrini and others believe that AI programming heralds the end of SaaS companies: one, products become homogenized, with zero profits, and two, jobs disappear.

But everyone overlooks one thing: the current state of these software products is simply terrible.

I'm qualified to say this because I've spent hundreds of thousands of dollars on Salesforce and Monday. Indeed, AI can enable competitors to replicate these products, but more importantly, AI can enable competitors to build better products. Stock price declines are not surprising: an industry relying on long-term lock-ins, lacking competitiveness, and filled with low-quality legacy incumbents is finally facing competition again.

From a broader perspective, almost all existing software is garbage, which is an undeniable fact. Every tool I've paid for is riddled with bugs; some software is so bad that I can't even pay for it (I've been unable to use Citibank's online transfer for the past three years); most web apps can't even get mobile and desktop responsiveness right; not a single product can fully deliver what you want. Silicon Valley darlings like Stripe and Linear only garner massive followings because they are not as disgustingly unusable as their competitors. If you ask a seasoned engineer, "Show me a truly perfect piece of software," all you'll get is prolonged silence and blank stares.

Here lies a profound truth: even as we approach a "software singularity," the human demand for software labor is nearly infinite. It's well known that the final few percentage points of perfection often require the most work. By this standard, almost every software product has at least a 100x improvement in complexity and features before reaching demand saturation.

I believe that most commentators who claim that the software industry is on the brink of extinction lack an intuitive understanding of software development. The software industry has been around for 50 years, and despite tremendous progress, it is always in a state of "not enough." As a programmer in 2020, my productivity matches that of hundreds of people in 1970, which is incredibly impressive leverage. However, there is still significant room for improvement. People underestimate the "Jevons Paradox": Efficiency improvements often lead to explosive growth in overall demand.

This does not mean that software engineering is an invincible job, but the industry's ability to absorb labor and its inertia far exceed imagination. The saturation process will be very slow, giving us enough time to adapt.

Redemption of "Reindustrialization"

Of course, labor reallocation is inevitable, such as in the driving sector. As Citrini pointed out, many white-collar jobs will experience disruptions. For positions like real estate brokers that have long lost tangible value and rely solely on momentum for income, AI may be the final straw.

But our lifesaver lies in the fact that the United States has almost infinite potential and demand for reindustrialization. You may have heard of "reshoring," but it goes far beyond that. We have essentially lost the ability to manufacture the core building blocks of modern life: batteries, motors, small-scale semiconductors—the entire electricity supply chain is almost entirely dependent on overseas sources. What if there is a military conflict? What's even worse, did you know that China produces 90% of the world's synthetic ammonia? Once the supply is cut off, we can't even produce fertilizer and will face famine.

As long as you look to the physical world, you will find endless job opportunities that will benefit the country, create employment, and build essential infrastructure, all of which can receive bipartisan political support.

We have seen the economic and political winds shifting in this direction—discussions on reshoring, deep tech, and "American vitality." My prediction is that when AI impacts the white-collar sector, the path of least political resistance will be to fund large-scale reindustrialization, absorbing labor through a "giant employment project." Fortunately, the physical world does not have a "singularity"; it is constrained by friction.

We will rebuild bridges and roads. People will find that seeing tangible labor results is more fulfilling than spinning in the digital abstract world. The Salesforce senior product manager who lost a $180,000 salary may find a new job at the "California Seawater Desalination Plant" to end the 25-year drought. These facilities not only need to be built but also pursued with excellence and require long-term maintenance. As long as we are willing, the "Jevons Paradox" also applies to the physical world.

Towards Abundance

The goal of large-scale industrial engineering is abundance. The United States will once again achieve self-sufficiency, enabling large-scale, low-cost production. Moving beyond material scarcity is crucial: in the long run, if we do indeed lose a significant portion of white-collar jobs to AI, we must be able to maintain a high quality of life for the public. And as AI drives profit margins to zero, consumer goods will become extremely affordable, automatically fulfilling this objective.

My view is that different sectors of the economy will "take off" at different speeds, and the transformation in almost all areas will be slower than Citrini anticipates. To be clear, I am extremely bullish on AI and foresee a day when my own labor will be obsolete. But this will take time, and time gives us the opportunity to devise sound strategies.

At this point, preventing the kind of market collapse Citrini imagines is actually not difficult. The U.S. government's performance during the pandemic has demonstrated its proactive and decisive crisis response. If necessary, massive stimulus policies will quickly intervene. Although I am somewhat displeased by its inefficiency, that is not the focus. The focus is on safeguarding material prosperity in people's lives—a universal well-being that gives legitimacy to a nation and upholds the social contract, rather than stubbornly adhering to past accounting metrics or economic dogma.

If we can maintain sharpness and responsiveness in this slow but sure technological transformation, we will eventually emerge unscathed.

Source: Original Post Link

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