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Coinbase 2026 Outlook: DAT and Tokenomics Will Enter the 2.0 Mode, Predicting Further Market Trading Volume Expansion
BlockBeats News, January 2nd, Coinbase Investment Research Director David Duong stated in Coinbase's "2026 Market Outlook Report":
The US economy continues to show resilience, with rising labor productivity helping to cushion the impact of slowing economic growth. Therefore, Coinbase believes that the crypto market landscape in the first half of 2026 is more akin to "1996" rather than "1999" (meaning, they are optimistic about the coming year), but they also acknowledge significant market uncertainty.
A clearer global framework will continue to change institutions' approaches to strategy, risk, and compliance in 2026. DeFi expanded its buyer base in 2025 but has recently seen valuation-driven consolidation. A "DeFi 2.0" model is expected in 2026, with future iterations focusing not just on simple asset accumulation but on professional trading, storage, and acquisition in the sovereign block space, considering the block space as a key digital economy commodity.
As regulations clarify, token holders' economic interests will be tied to platform usage, and protocols are evolving toward value capture mechanisms, including fee sharing, buybacks, and mechanisms like "buy-and-burn." Coinbase sees this as a sign of an emerging shift from purely narrative-driven test modes to durable, revenue-coupled models.
It is expected that technologies like Zero-Knowledge Proofs (ZKP) and Fully Homomorphic Encryption (FHE) will continue to evolve, and with the widespread application of crypto infrastructure, the use of on-chain privacy will also significantly increase.
The projected market trading volume for 2026 is expected to further expand as changes in US tax policy may drive users toward these derivatives-based markets. While market fragmentation may pose risks, Coinbase believes that predictive market aggregators are likely to become a dominant interface layer, with weekly trading volumes potentially reaching into the billions of dollars.
By the end of 2028, the total market capitalization of stablecoins is expected to reach around $1.2 trillion. More new application scenarios are expected to emerge in areas such as cross-border transaction settlement, remittances, and payroll platforms.
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