Historical Epic Options Expiry Market Trend Review: Significant Volatility Surge, Often Accompanied by One-sided Market Acceleration

BlockBeats News, December 26, at 16:00 today (UTC+8), Bitcoin ushered in the largest ever $23.7 billion annual settlement. The market performance after the settlement in previous years and quarters is as follows:

December 29, 2023 (Annual Major Settlement), with a nominal value of approximately $11 billion, and a maximum pain point at around $42,000.

Before Expiry: The market was in a highly suppressed state, with prices ranging from $42,000 to $43,000 in a narrow range.

After Expiry: The "cage" of suppressed volatility disappeared, and BTC quickly surged in the following days, initiating a one-way rally towards $48,000 in early 2024.

March 29, 2024 (Quarterly Settlement), with a nominal value of approximately $15 billion, and a maximum pain point at around $65,000.

Before Expiry: With the market anticipating the Bitcoin halving, prices fluctuated between $60,000 and $70,000, exhibiting high volatility. Active hedging activities led to short-term suppression.

After Expiry: Following the release of gamma hedging, BTC rapidly broke through upwards, surging towards over $70,000 close to the halving, initiating a new high, and kicking off the accelerating phase of the bull market.

June 28, 2024 (Quarterly Settlement), with a nominal value of approximately $17 billion, and a maximum pain point at around $60,000.

Before Expiry: The market entered a retracement period, with prices oscillating around $60,000, an increased selling pressure, and a noticeable gamma pinning effect.

After Expiry: Short-term volatility increased after the settlement. BTC initially dipped and then rebounded, but overall maintained a retracement trend, not immediately embarking on a strong upward trend.

September 27, 2024 (Quarterly Settlement), with a nominal value of approximately $18 billion, and a maximum pain point at around $62,000.

Before Expiry: Affected by the Federal Reserve policy, prices ranged from $55,000 to $65,000, with moderate liquidity and range compression due to hedging.

After Expiry: Post-settlement volatility increased, BTC broke upwards, benefiting from the rate cut expectations, initiating a rebound rally towards around $70,000.

December 27, 2024 (Annual Major Settlement), with a nominal value of approximately $19.8 billion, and a maximum pain point at around $75,000.

Before Expiry: During the peak of the bull market, prices fluctuated between $70,000 and $80,000, with a relatively weak upward pressure due to a majority of call options, but thin holiday liquidity.

After Expiry: Following the release of hedging, BTC continued its bullish momentum, rapidly breaking through $80,000. The end-of-year Christmas market sentiment further drove prices up.

March 28, 2025 (Quarterly Settlement), with a notional value of approximately $14 billion, and a maximum pain point of around $85,000.

Pre-Expiry: Amid favorable regulation, the price is expected to fluctuate between $80,000 and $90,000, with optimistic sentiment but some short-term downside risks. Gamma exposure will provide a price floor.

Post-Expiry: Increased volatility post-settlement, with BTC breaking above $85,000, initiating a strong rally towards $100,000.

June 27, 2025 (Quarterly Settlement), with a notional value of approximately $14.5 billion, and a maximum pain point of around $102,000.

Pre-Expiry: Mixed market sentiment leading to significant price fluctuations.

Post-Expiry: A minor post-settlement pullback followed by overall upward momentum, without extreme volatility.

August 29, 2025 (Quarterly Settlement), with a notional value ranging from $13.8 billion to $14.5 billion, and a maximum pain point of around $116,000.

Pre-Expiry: Thin holiday liquidity, with prices fluctuating between $110,000 and $120,000, and an increased gamma trap effect.

Post-Expiry: BTC briefly dips below the maximum pain point before a swift recovery, experiencing amplified volatility but bouncing back quickly, maintaining the bullish market trend.

December 26, 2025 (Today's Annual Mega Settlement), with a notional value of approximately $23.6 billion, and a maximum pain point of around $96,000.

Pre-Expiry: Due to the Christmas holiday and thin market liquidity coupled with a rise in precious metal prices, Bitcoin is expected to trade sideways between $85,000 and $90,000, with gamma hedging strongly suppressing volatility.

Post-Expiry: The "cage" is expected to disappear post-settlement, significantly increasing market volatility, potentially breaking above the $90,000 range. Some analysts are optimistic about approaching $100,000 and even starting a New Year surge.