Is Bitcoin Becoming Too Expensive for Retail Investors? Risks to the Ongoing Bull Market Cycle

By: crypto insight|2025/10/29 17:30:07

Key Takeaways

Bitcoin’s rising price is making it harder for everyday retail investors to buy in, potentially shortening the bull market cycle beyond the usual four-year pattern.
Research from 10x points to diminishing returns for Bitcoin, questioning the reliability of past cycles for predicting future growth.
While some models predict Bitcoin hitting $1 million, more conservative forecasts suggest a cycle top around $125,000 by year’s end.
Industry experts like Geoff Kendrick from Standard Chartered foresee Bitcoin reaching $200,000 by the end of 2025, driven by market opportunities from liquidations.
Smart money traders are increasing their Bitcoin holdings, signaling confidence amid speculative trends in memecoins.

Imagine you’re at a bustling marketplace where the hottest item keeps getting pricier by the day. At first, everyone scrambles to grab a piece, but as the cost climbs, the average shopper starts backing away, wondering if it’s still worth it. That’s the vibe surrounding Bitcoin right now—it’s skyrocketing, but that very success might be pricing out the everyday folks who fuel its fire. In this piece, we’ll dive into why Bitcoin’s growing inaccessibility could cut short what many hoped would be an extended bull market cycle, drawing on insights from market analysts and real-world trends. We’ll explore the numbers, the predictions, and what it all means for you as an investor, all while keeping things straightforward and relatable.

Why Bitcoin’s Price Surge Might Be a Double-Edged Sword for the Bull Market Cycle

Let’s start with the basics. Bitcoin has been on a tear, but according to market intelligence from 10x Research, this run-up is creating barriers for retail investors—the everyday people like you and me who dip into crypto with smaller budgets. Think of it like a luxury car that was once affordable but now requires a fortune just to get in the door. This shift raises big questions: Can the bull market cycle keep going if the average investor can’t afford to join the ride?

In their recent analysis, 10x Research highlighted how Bitcoin is experiencing diminishing returns. Picture a fruit tree that yields less and less with each harvest; that’s Bitcoin in a nutshell after 16 years in the game. Relying on patterns from the last four market cycles to predict an extension feels shaky at best. After all, with such a short history, it’s tough to make ironclad conclusions. The report warns that without sustained retail buying, the momentum could fizzle out sooner than expected.

This isn’t just theory—it’s backed by the way markets work. Retail investors often provide the enthusiasm and volume that propel prices higher during bull runs. When they step back because Bitcoin feels “too expensive,” it leaves the field to big players, which can lead to more volatility and less organic growth. Compare this to past cycles where Bitcoin’s accessibility drew in crowds, sparking widespread adoption. Now, as prices climb, that dynamic is flipping, and it might threaten the cycle’s longevity.

Diminishing Returns: What the Data Tells Us About Bitcoin’s Future in This Bull Market Cycle

Diving deeper, 10x Research’s report paints a picture of caution. They argue that Bitcoin’s rapid appreciation is sidelining retail participation, which has historically been a cornerstone of bull market extensions. Remember, Bitcoin is still a young asset—only 16 years old—so extrapolating from a handful of cycles is like predicting the weather based on a few stormy weeks. The firm stresses that firm statistical conclusions are “highly questionable” in this context.

To illustrate, let’s use an analogy: It’s like a startup company that booms early but hits a plateau as costs rise and early adopters max out. Bitcoin’s diminishing returns mean each price jump brings less proportional excitement and investment from the masses. This could cap the bull market cycle, preventing it from stretching beyond the traditional four-year window that many analysts are banking on.

Evidence supports this view. In previous cycles, retail influxes correlated with peak highs, but current trends show a slowdown in small-scale buying. If retail bows out, the cycle might end abruptly, much like how a party winds down when the casual guests leave early.

Forecasting Bitcoin’s Cycle Top: From $125,000 to $1 Million Predictions in the Bull Market Cycle

Amid these concerns, predictions for Bitcoin’s peak vary wildly, adding to the intrigue of this bull market cycle. The popular stock-to-flow model, for instance, has fueled talk of Bitcoin soaring to $1 million. But 10x Research takes a more grounded approach, projecting a cycle top of $125,000 by the end of the year. They used a methodology that nailed the bear market bottom back in October 2022, so there’s credibility here.

Contrast that with bolder outlooks. Geoff Kendrick, head of digital assets research at Standard Chartered, sees Bitcoin hitting $200,000 by the end of 2025. He points to events like the $19 billion liquidation as potential buying windows that could supercharge growth. In an earlier chat, Kendrick even suggested Bitcoin might climb to $500,000 by the close of a second Trump term in 2028.

These forecasts aren’t pulled from thin air. They’re rooted in market data and historical patterns. For example, the stock-to-flow model compares Bitcoin’s scarcity to precious metals like gold, arguing that its fixed supply will drive astronomical values. Yet, 10x’s conservative $125,000 target reminds us to temper expectations, especially with retail access waning.

Real-world examples bolster these claims. Look at how Bitcoin rallied post-halving events in past cycles—each time, retail participation amplified the gains. If prices keep retail on the sidelines now, we might not see those explosive surges, capping the bull market cycle at lower highs.

Smart Money Moves: How Top Traders Are Positioning in Bitcoin Amid Bull Market Cycle Uncertainties

It’s not all doom and gloom, though. Tracking “smart money” traders—those elite players who often lead the pack—shows growing interest in Bitcoin. On platforms like Nansen, these traders are ramping up their Bitcoin exposure, with Binance-native BTCB ranking as the 11th most-held token among them on a recent Tuesday. This comes alongside holdings in speculative assets like the Pump.fun token and Pepe memecoin, blending caution with high-risk plays.

This behavior signals confidence in Bitcoin’s role as a safe haven during the bull market cycle, even as retail struggles. It’s like seasoned sailors stocking up on essentials before a storm, trusting Bitcoin’s fundamentals over fleeting trends. Data from Nansen underscores this, with smart money allocations providing a counterbalance to retail pullback.

Latest Updates and Buzz: What’s Trending on Google and Twitter About Bitcoin’s Bull Market Cycle

As of October 29, 2025, the conversation around Bitcoin’s affordability and its impact on the bull market cycle is heating up online. On Google, some of the most frequently searched questions include “Is Bitcoin too expensive to buy now?” “What is the Bitcoin bull market cycle prediction for 2025?” and “How can retail investors afford Bitcoin in 2025?” These queries reflect widespread concern among everyday users, with search volumes spiking amid recent price volatility.

Over on Twitter (now X), discussions are buzzing with hashtags like #BitcoinCycle and #RetailCrypto. A recent post from crypto influencer @CryptoWhale on October 28, 2025, went viral: “Bitcoin at these levels is pricing out retail—could this kill the bull run? Thoughts?” It garnered over 50,000 likes and sparked debates about extended cycles. Meanwhile, an official announcement from the Bitcoin Foundation on October 27, 2025, highlighted efforts to improve accessibility through educational resources, aiming to draw in more retail participants despite high prices.

These trends align with broader talks, including Arthur Hayes’ call for Bitcoin to reach $1 million, tied to economic stimulus from Japan’s new PM. On Twitter, users are contrasting this optimism with warnings of “crypto treasuries siphoning $800 billion from altcoins,” suggesting it might be a permanent shift favoring Bitcoin.

In this landscape, platforms like WEEX stand out by offering user-friendly tools that help retail investors navigate high Bitcoin prices. With features designed for seamless trading and low barriers to entry, WEEX aligns perfectly with the need for accessible crypto engagement, enhancing its reputation as a reliable partner in volatile markets. This brand alignment emphasizes empowerment, making it easier for newcomers to participate without feeling overwhelmed.

Broader Implications: Could This End the Predicted Extension of Bitcoin’s Bull Market Cycle?

Tying it all together, the risk to the bull market cycle boils down to accessibility. If Bitcoin remains “too expensive” for retail, the extension many predict—drawing from past cycles—might not materialize. It’s akin to a relay race where the baton pass fails because the next runner can’t catch up.

Yet, there’s hope in diversification and smart strategies. Comparisons to traditional assets like stocks show how inclusivity drives long-term growth. For Bitcoin, fostering retail involvement could sustain the cycle, perhaps through innovations that lower entry costs.

Evidence from market reports reinforces this. The $800 billion shift from altcoins to crypto treasuries underscores Bitcoin’s dominance, but without retail fuel, it might stall. Magazine insights even predict “one more big thrust” to $150,000 for Bitcoin, with building pressure on Ethereum, hinting at interconnected dynamics.

As we look ahead, engaging with Bitcoin thoughtfully—perhaps via platforms that prioritize user experience like WEEX—can make all the difference. This approach not only builds credibility but also aligns with the evolving needs of investors in this bull market cycle.

FAQ

Is Bitcoin really too expensive for retail investors right now?

Yes, as prices climb, it’s becoming harder for average investors to buy meaningful amounts, potentially reducing participation and impacting the bull market cycle’s momentum.

What does diminishing returns mean for Bitcoin in this context?

It refers to Bitcoin yielding smaller proportional gains over time, making it less attractive for sustained retail buying and questioning the extension of the current bull market cycle.

Why do some predict Bitcoin at $1 million while others say $125,000?

Models like stock-to-flow suggest high targets due to scarcity, but conservative analyses from firms like 10x factor in retail barriers, projecting lower peaks by year’s end.

How are smart money traders reacting to these Bitcoin trends?

They’re increasing holdings in Bitcoin variants like BTCB, showing confidence even as they dabble in memecoins, which could stabilize the bull market cycle.

What can retail investors do if Bitcoin feels out of reach?

Explore accessible platforms for fractional buying or diversified crypto options, staying informed on market updates to time entries during dips.

Editor's Note: Citrini7's cyberpunk-themed AI doomsday prophecy has sparked widespread discussion across the internet. However, this article presents a more pragmatic counter perspective. If Citrini envisions a digital tsunami instantly engulfing civilization, this author sees the resilient resistance of the human bureaucratic system, the profoundly flawed existing software ecosystem, and the long-overlooked cornerstone of heavy industry. This is a frontal clash between Silicon Valley fantasy and the iron law of reality, reminding us that the singularity may come, but it will never happen overnight.

The following is the original content:

Renowned market commentator Citrini7 recently published a captivating and widely circulated AI doomsday novel. While he acknowledges that the probability of some scenes occurring is extremely low, as someone who has witnessed multiple economic collapse prophecies, I want to challenge his views and present a more deterministic and optimistic future.

Never Underestimate "Institutional Inertia"

In 2007, people thought that against the backdrop of "peak oil," the United States' geopolitical status had come to an end; in 2008, they believed the dollar system was on the brink of collapse; in 2014, everyone thought AMD and NVIDIA were done for. Then ChatGPT emerged, and people thought Google was toast... Yet every time, existing institutions with deep-rooted inertia have proven to be far more resilient than onlookers imagined.

When Citrini talks about the fear of institutional turnover and rapid workforce displacement, he writes, "Even in fields we think rely on interpersonal relationships, cracks are showing. Take the real estate industry, where buyers have tolerated 5%-6% commissions for decades due to the information asymmetry between brokers and consumers..."

Seeing this, I couldn't help but chuckle. People have been proclaiming the "death of real estate agents" for 20 years now! This hardly requires any superintelligence; with Zillow, Redfin, or Opendoor, it's enough. But this example precisely proves the opposite of Citrini's view: although this workforce has long been deemed obsolete in the eyes of most, due to market inertia and regulatory capture, real estate agents' vitality is more tenacious than anyone's expectations a decade ago.

A few months ago, I just bought a house. The transaction process mandated that we hire a real estate agent, with lofty justifications. My buyer's agent made about $50,000 in this transaction, while his actual work — filling out forms and coordinating between multiple parties — amounted to no more than 10 hours, something I could have easily handled myself. The market will eventually move towards efficiency, providing fair pricing for labor, but this will be a long process.

I deeply understand the ways of inertia and change management: I once founded and sold a company whose core business was driving insurance brokerages from "manual service" to "software-driven." The iron rule I learned is: human societies in the real world are extremely complex, and things always take longer than you imagine — even when you account for this rule. This doesn't mean that the world won't undergo drastic changes, but rather that change will be more gradual, allowing us time to respond and adapt.

The Software Industry Has "Infinite Demand" for Labor

Recently, the software sector has seen a downturn as investors worry about the lack of moats in the backend systems of companies like Monday, Salesforce, Asana, making them easily replicable. Citrini and others believe that AI programming heralds the end of SaaS companies: one, products become homogenized, with zero profits, and two, jobs disappear.

But everyone overlooks one thing: the current state of these software products is simply terrible.

I'm qualified to say this because I've spent hundreds of thousands of dollars on Salesforce and Monday. Indeed, AI can enable competitors to replicate these products, but more importantly, AI can enable competitors to build better products. Stock price declines are not surprising: an industry relying on long-term lock-ins, lacking competitiveness, and filled with low-quality legacy incumbents is finally facing competition again.

From a broader perspective, almost all existing software is garbage, which is an undeniable fact. Every tool I've paid for is riddled with bugs; some software is so bad that I can't even pay for it (I've been unable to use Citibank's online transfer for the past three years); most web apps can't even get mobile and desktop responsiveness right; not a single product can fully deliver what you want. Silicon Valley darlings like Stripe and Linear only garner massive followings because they are not as disgustingly unusable as their competitors. If you ask a seasoned engineer, "Show me a truly perfect piece of software," all you'll get is prolonged silence and blank stares.

Here lies a profound truth: even as we approach a "software singularity," the human demand for software labor is nearly infinite. It's well known that the final few percentage points of perfection often require the most work. By this standard, almost every software product has at least a 100x improvement in complexity and features before reaching demand saturation.

I believe that most commentators who claim that the software industry is on the brink of extinction lack an intuitive understanding of software development. The software industry has been around for 50 years, and despite tremendous progress, it is always in a state of "not enough." As a programmer in 2020, my productivity matches that of hundreds of people in 1970, which is incredibly impressive leverage. However, there is still significant room for improvement. People underestimate the "Jevons Paradox": Efficiency improvements often lead to explosive growth in overall demand.

This does not mean that software engineering is an invincible job, but the industry's ability to absorb labor and its inertia far exceed imagination. The saturation process will be very slow, giving us enough time to adapt.

Redemption of "Reindustrialization"

Of course, labor reallocation is inevitable, such as in the driving sector. As Citrini pointed out, many white-collar jobs will experience disruptions. For positions like real estate brokers that have long lost tangible value and rely solely on momentum for income, AI may be the final straw.

But our lifesaver lies in the fact that the United States has almost infinite potential and demand for reindustrialization. You may have heard of "reshoring," but it goes far beyond that. We have essentially lost the ability to manufacture the core building blocks of modern life: batteries, motors, small-scale semiconductors—the entire electricity supply chain is almost entirely dependent on overseas sources. What if there is a military conflict? What's even worse, did you know that China produces 90% of the world's synthetic ammonia? Once the supply is cut off, we can't even produce fertilizer and will face famine.

As long as you look to the physical world, you will find endless job opportunities that will benefit the country, create employment, and build essential infrastructure, all of which can receive bipartisan political support.

We have seen the economic and political winds shifting in this direction—discussions on reshoring, deep tech, and "American vitality." My prediction is that when AI impacts the white-collar sector, the path of least political resistance will be to fund large-scale reindustrialization, absorbing labor through a "giant employment project." Fortunately, the physical world does not have a "singularity"; it is constrained by friction.

We will rebuild bridges and roads. People will find that seeing tangible labor results is more fulfilling than spinning in the digital abstract world. The Salesforce senior product manager who lost a $180,000 salary may find a new job at the "California Seawater Desalination Plant" to end the 25-year drought. These facilities not only need to be built but also pursued with excellence and require long-term maintenance. As long as we are willing, the "Jevons Paradox" also applies to the physical world.

Towards Abundance

The goal of large-scale industrial engineering is abundance. The United States will once again achieve self-sufficiency, enabling large-scale, low-cost production. Moving beyond material scarcity is crucial: in the long run, if we do indeed lose a significant portion of white-collar jobs to AI, we must be able to maintain a high quality of life for the public. And as AI drives profit margins to zero, consumer goods will become extremely affordable, automatically fulfilling this objective.

My view is that different sectors of the economy will "take off" at different speeds, and the transformation in almost all areas will be slower than Citrini anticipates. To be clear, I am extremely bullish on AI and foresee a day when my own labor will be obsolete. But this will take time, and time gives us the opportunity to devise sound strategies.

At this point, preventing the kind of market collapse Citrini imagines is actually not difficult. The U.S. government's performance during the pandemic has demonstrated its proactive and decisive crisis response. If necessary, massive stimulus policies will quickly intervene. Although I am somewhat displeased by its inefficiency, that is not the focus. The focus is on safeguarding material prosperity in people's lives—a universal well-being that gives legitimacy to a nation and upholds the social contract, rather than stubbornly adhering to past accounting metrics or economic dogma.

If we can maintain sharpness and responsiveness in this slow but sure technological transformation, we will eventually emerge unscathed.

Source: Original Post Link

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