Is Bitcoin Getting Too Pricey for Everyday Investors? How It Could Signal the End of the Bull Market Cycle

By: crypto insight|2025/10/29 18:00:04

Key Takeaways

Bitcoin’s rising price is making it harder for average retail investors to buy in, potentially shortening the current bull market cycle.
Research from 10x Research highlights diminishing returns for Bitcoin, questioning the reliability of traditional four-year cycle predictions.
While some models forecast Bitcoin reaching $1 million, more conservative estimates suggest a cycle top around $125,000 by year’s end.
Industry experts like Geoff Kendrick predict Bitcoin could hit $200,000 by the end of 2025, fueled by market events and economic stimuli.
Platforms like WEEX are stepping up to make Bitcoin more accessible for retail investors through user-friendly tools and low barriers to entry.

As we dive into the world of cryptocurrencies here in late 2025, it’s hard not to feel the buzz around Bitcoin. Picture this: you’re at a family gathering, and your cousin who’s always been skeptical about crypto suddenly asks, “Hey, is now the time to jump into Bitcoin?” It’s a question echoing across dinner tables and online forums alike. But beneath the excitement, there’s a growing concern that’s been bubbling up—Bitcoin might be getting too expensive for the everyday person. This isn’t just a minor hiccup; it could be the factor that derails the bull market cycle we’ve all been riding high on. Let’s unpack this idea step by step, drawing from fresh insights and real-world trends, while exploring how platforms like WEEX are helping bridge the gap for retail investors.

Why Bitcoin’s Price Surge Is Pricing Out Retail Investors

Imagine Bitcoin as that hot new gadget everyone wants, but the price keeps climbing so fast that only the big players can afford it. That’s the reality we’re facing today. According to analysis from market intelligence firm 10x Research, Bitcoin is becoming increasingly out of reach for average investors. This shift isn’t just about numbers on a screen—it’s about accessibility. In the early days, Bitcoin felt like a democratic revolution, where anyone with a smartphone could dip their toes in. Now, with prices soaring, that dream seems a bit more distant.

The report points out that Bitcoin is experiencing diminishing returns, meaning each price jump brings less excitement and fewer new buyers. It’s like a blockbuster movie franchise: the first few films pack the theaters, but by the tenth installment, audiences start thinning out. This pattern raises serious doubts about the so-called Bitcoin cycle theory, which traditionally predicts booms and busts every four years. But Bitcoin is still a relatively young asset—only 16 years old as of now. Trying to base rock-solid predictions on such a short history is like forecasting a lifetime of weather patterns from just a few stormy seasons. It’s intriguing, but highly questionable.

This inaccessibility threatens to cut short the extension of the current bull market cycle that many have been hoping for. Without retail investors—the everyday folks like you and me—pouring in fresh capital, the momentum could fizzle out faster than expected. It’s a reminder that crypto isn’t just about tech or charts; it’s about people and their ability to participate.

Diminishing Returns: A Closer Look at Bitcoin’s Maturity

Let’s get real for a moment. Bitcoin’s growth has been nothing short of meteoric, but as it matures, those explosive gains are slowing down. The 10x Research report describes this as a natural sign of the asset coming of age, yet it prompts deeper questions about sustainability. Think of it like an athlete hitting their peak: early career wins come easy, but maintaining that edge requires more effort and attracts fewer casual fans.

Drawing from the patterns of the last four market cycles, some analysts argue for an extended bull run this time around. However, 10x Research cautions that such conclusions might be premature. With Bitcoin’s history being so brief, statistical models based on it could be shaky ground. It’s akin to building a house on sand—looks sturdy at first, but one big wave could wash it away.

This perspective ties into broader discussions happening online. If you’ve been scrolling through Google searches lately, you’ll notice queries like “Is Bitcoin still worth buying in 2025?” or “How high will Bitcoin go this cycle?” topping the charts. These are among the most frequently searched questions, reflecting widespread curiosity and a bit of anxiety among potential investors. On Twitter (now X), topics like #BitcoinCycle and #RetailCrypto have been trending, with users debating whether the average person can still afford to get involved. Just last week, as of October 29, 2025, a viral thread from a prominent crypto influencer amassed over 50,000 likes, arguing that retail exclusion could lead to a market correction sooner than anticipated.

Forecasting the Future: From $125,000 to $1 Million Predictions

Amid these concerns, predictions about Bitcoin’s price are flying left and right. One popular model, the stock-to-flow approach, has gained traction for suggesting Bitcoin could skyrocket to $1 million. It’s based on Bitcoin’s scarcity, much like gold’s limited supply drives its value. But 10x Research takes a more grounded view, using their own methodology to project a cycle top of around $125,000 by the end of the year. This isn’t pulled out of thin air—they applied similar tactics to accurately call the bear market bottom back in October 2022, proving their track record.

Compare that to bolder outlooks. Geoff Kendrick, a key figure in digital assets research at Standard Chartered, has forecasted Bitcoin reaching $200,000 by the end of 2025. He points to massive market events, like the record $19 billion liquidation that happened earlier, as potential turning points that could spark buying frenzies. In an interview from February, he even suggested Bitcoin might climb to $500,000 by the end of a second Trump term in 2028. It’s like comparing a cautious road trip to an adrenaline-fueled race—both exciting, but with different risks.

Adding to this, smart money traders—those elite players tracked on blockchain platforms like Nansen—are ramping up their Bitcoin holdings. As of a recent Tuesday check, Binance-native Bitcoin was among the top tokens they favored, right alongside more speculative picks like certain memecoins. This shows confidence from the pros, but it also highlights the divide: while whales accumulate, retail investors might be left watching from the sidelines.

On the update front, as of October 29, 2025, fresh economic stimulus announcements from Japan’s new Prime Minister have stirred the pot. Arthur Hayes, a well-known crypto voice, publicly called for Bitcoin to hit $1 million, tying it to these global shifts. His Twitter post, which gained traction with over 100,000 retweets, emphasized how such policies could supercharge crypto adoption. Meanwhile, discussions on Twitter about crypto treasuries siphoning funds from altcoins—potentially forever—have been heating up, with estimates of $800 billion redirected, further bolstering Bitcoin’s dominance.

How Economic Stimuli and Market Events Could Extend the Cycle

Speaking of global influences, let’s not overlook how broader economic moves are playing into this. The new Japanese PM’s order for economic stimulus is a game-changer, potentially injecting liquidity that flows into assets like Bitcoin. It’s similar to pouring fuel on a fire—sudden and impactful. Analysts like Hayes see this as a catalyst for Bitcoin’s next big thrust, possibly to $150,000 or beyond, as pressure builds on other cryptocurrencies like Ethereum.

But here’s where the rubber meets the road for retail investors. With Bitcoin feeling “too expensive,” how do you get in without breaking the bank? This is where platforms like WEEX shine. WEEX has positioned itself as a reliable ally for everyday traders, offering intuitive interfaces and low entry barriers that make Bitcoin accessible even as prices climb. Unlike some exchanges that cater mainly to institutions, WEEX focuses on brand alignment with user empowerment, providing educational resources and fractional buying options. This approach not only enhances credibility but also builds trust, ensuring that retail investors aren’t left out of the bull market narrative. By aligning with user needs, WEEX demonstrates how innovation can democratize crypto, turning potential threats into opportunities.

The Role of Retail in Sustaining Bitcoin’s Bull Run

At its core, the bull market cycle thrives on participation. Without retail investors, it’s like a party where only the VIPs show up—the energy dips, and things wind down early. 10x Research’s warning underscores this: if Bitcoin continues to suffer from diminishing returns and high barriers, the cycle extension many predict could evaporate.

To illustrate, think back to previous cycles. Early adopters fueled massive rallies, but as prices matured, the influx slowed. Today, with tools and platforms evolving, there’s hope. Frequently discussed Twitter topics like #BitcoinAdoption highlight success stories of retail investors using exchanges to build portfolios gradually. Google searches for “Best platforms for buying Bitcoin affordably” have surged, pointing users toward options that prioritize ease and security.

Latest updates as of October 29, 2025, include an official announcement from the U.S. Treasury on crypto regulations, which has Twitter abuzz with #CryptoRegulations. This could stabilize markets, encouraging more retail entry. In a recent post, a blockchain analyst noted how such clarity might prevent the $800 billion shift from altcoins to Bitcoin from alienating smaller players, instead creating a more inclusive ecosystem.

Bridging the Gap: Opportunities Amid Challenges

Despite the hurdles, there’s optimism. Comparisons to traditional markets show that mature assets like stocks often find new ways to attract investors through innovations like ETFs. Bitcoin could follow suit, especially with platforms like WEEX leading the charge in user-centric design. Their commitment to seamless trading experiences aligns perfectly with the need for accessibility, helping to mitigate the “too expensive” dilemma.

Evidence backs this up: data from Nansen shows increasing Bitcoin exposure among smart traders, signaling underlying strength. By integrating real-world examples, such as the impact of economic stimuli, we see a persuasive case for sustained growth—if retail can stay in the game.

As we wrap this up, remember that Bitcoin’s story is still unfolding. It’s not just about charts and predictions; it’s about how it fits into our lives. Whether you’re a seasoned trader or just curious, staying informed and choosing the right tools can make all the difference.

FAQ

What Makes Bitcoin Seem Too Expensive for Retail Investors?

Bitcoin’s price has risen significantly, making large purchases less feasible for average people. This reduces new capital inflow, potentially shortening the bull market cycle, as highlighted by diminishing returns in recent analyses.

How Reliable Are Bitcoin Cycle Predictions?

With Bitcoin only 16 years old, cycle theories based on past patterns are questionable. Models like stock-to-flow predict high targets, but conservative estimates suggest more modest peaks, urging caution in long-term forecasts.

What Are the Latest Bitcoin Price Predictions for 2025?

Experts forecast ranges from $125,000 by year-end to $200,000 by the end of 2025, influenced by market liquidations and economic stimuli. Smart traders are increasing holdings, adding credibility to upward trends.

How Can Retail Investors Still Participate in the Bitcoin Market?

Platforms offering fractional buying and low fees help. For instance, user-friendly exchanges make entry easier, allowing small investments without needing to buy whole Bitcoins.

What Impact Do Global Events Have on Bitcoin’s Bull Cycle?

Events like Japan’s economic stimulus can boost liquidity, potentially extending the cycle. Recent announcements have sparked discussions on how such policies could drive Bitcoin to new highs amid shifting market dynamics.

Editor's Note: Citrini7's cyberpunk-themed AI doomsday prophecy has sparked widespread discussion across the internet. However, this article presents a more pragmatic counter perspective. If Citrini envisions a digital tsunami instantly engulfing civilization, this author sees the resilient resistance of the human bureaucratic system, the profoundly flawed existing software ecosystem, and the long-overlooked cornerstone of heavy industry. This is a frontal clash between Silicon Valley fantasy and the iron law of reality, reminding us that the singularity may come, but it will never happen overnight.

The following is the original content:

Renowned market commentator Citrini7 recently published a captivating and widely circulated AI doomsday novel. While he acknowledges that the probability of some scenes occurring is extremely low, as someone who has witnessed multiple economic collapse prophecies, I want to challenge his views and present a more deterministic and optimistic future.

Never Underestimate "Institutional Inertia"

In 2007, people thought that against the backdrop of "peak oil," the United States' geopolitical status had come to an end; in 2008, they believed the dollar system was on the brink of collapse; in 2014, everyone thought AMD and NVIDIA were done for. Then ChatGPT emerged, and people thought Google was toast... Yet every time, existing institutions with deep-rooted inertia have proven to be far more resilient than onlookers imagined.

When Citrini talks about the fear of institutional turnover and rapid workforce displacement, he writes, "Even in fields we think rely on interpersonal relationships, cracks are showing. Take the real estate industry, where buyers have tolerated 5%-6% commissions for decades due to the information asymmetry between brokers and consumers..."

Seeing this, I couldn't help but chuckle. People have been proclaiming the "death of real estate agents" for 20 years now! This hardly requires any superintelligence; with Zillow, Redfin, or Opendoor, it's enough. But this example precisely proves the opposite of Citrini's view: although this workforce has long been deemed obsolete in the eyes of most, due to market inertia and regulatory capture, real estate agents' vitality is more tenacious than anyone's expectations a decade ago.

A few months ago, I just bought a house. The transaction process mandated that we hire a real estate agent, with lofty justifications. My buyer's agent made about $50,000 in this transaction, while his actual work — filling out forms and coordinating between multiple parties — amounted to no more than 10 hours, something I could have easily handled myself. The market will eventually move towards efficiency, providing fair pricing for labor, but this will be a long process.

I deeply understand the ways of inertia and change management: I once founded and sold a company whose core business was driving insurance brokerages from "manual service" to "software-driven." The iron rule I learned is: human societies in the real world are extremely complex, and things always take longer than you imagine — even when you account for this rule. This doesn't mean that the world won't undergo drastic changes, but rather that change will be more gradual, allowing us time to respond and adapt.

The Software Industry Has "Infinite Demand" for Labor

Recently, the software sector has seen a downturn as investors worry about the lack of moats in the backend systems of companies like Monday, Salesforce, Asana, making them easily replicable. Citrini and others believe that AI programming heralds the end of SaaS companies: one, products become homogenized, with zero profits, and two, jobs disappear.

But everyone overlooks one thing: the current state of these software products is simply terrible.

I'm qualified to say this because I've spent hundreds of thousands of dollars on Salesforce and Monday. Indeed, AI can enable competitors to replicate these products, but more importantly, AI can enable competitors to build better products. Stock price declines are not surprising: an industry relying on long-term lock-ins, lacking competitiveness, and filled with low-quality legacy incumbents is finally facing competition again.

From a broader perspective, almost all existing software is garbage, which is an undeniable fact. Every tool I've paid for is riddled with bugs; some software is so bad that I can't even pay for it (I've been unable to use Citibank's online transfer for the past three years); most web apps can't even get mobile and desktop responsiveness right; not a single product can fully deliver what you want. Silicon Valley darlings like Stripe and Linear only garner massive followings because they are not as disgustingly unusable as their competitors. If you ask a seasoned engineer, "Show me a truly perfect piece of software," all you'll get is prolonged silence and blank stares.

Here lies a profound truth: even as we approach a "software singularity," the human demand for software labor is nearly infinite. It's well known that the final few percentage points of perfection often require the most work. By this standard, almost every software product has at least a 100x improvement in complexity and features before reaching demand saturation.

I believe that most commentators who claim that the software industry is on the brink of extinction lack an intuitive understanding of software development. The software industry has been around for 50 years, and despite tremendous progress, it is always in a state of "not enough." As a programmer in 2020, my productivity matches that of hundreds of people in 1970, which is incredibly impressive leverage. However, there is still significant room for improvement. People underestimate the "Jevons Paradox": Efficiency improvements often lead to explosive growth in overall demand.

This does not mean that software engineering is an invincible job, but the industry's ability to absorb labor and its inertia far exceed imagination. The saturation process will be very slow, giving us enough time to adapt.

Redemption of "Reindustrialization"

Of course, labor reallocation is inevitable, such as in the driving sector. As Citrini pointed out, many white-collar jobs will experience disruptions. For positions like real estate brokers that have long lost tangible value and rely solely on momentum for income, AI may be the final straw.

But our lifesaver lies in the fact that the United States has almost infinite potential and demand for reindustrialization. You may have heard of "reshoring," but it goes far beyond that. We have essentially lost the ability to manufacture the core building blocks of modern life: batteries, motors, small-scale semiconductors—the entire electricity supply chain is almost entirely dependent on overseas sources. What if there is a military conflict? What's even worse, did you know that China produces 90% of the world's synthetic ammonia? Once the supply is cut off, we can't even produce fertilizer and will face famine.

As long as you look to the physical world, you will find endless job opportunities that will benefit the country, create employment, and build essential infrastructure, all of which can receive bipartisan political support.

We have seen the economic and political winds shifting in this direction—discussions on reshoring, deep tech, and "American vitality." My prediction is that when AI impacts the white-collar sector, the path of least political resistance will be to fund large-scale reindustrialization, absorbing labor through a "giant employment project." Fortunately, the physical world does not have a "singularity"; it is constrained by friction.

We will rebuild bridges and roads. People will find that seeing tangible labor results is more fulfilling than spinning in the digital abstract world. The Salesforce senior product manager who lost a $180,000 salary may find a new job at the "California Seawater Desalination Plant" to end the 25-year drought. These facilities not only need to be built but also pursued with excellence and require long-term maintenance. As long as we are willing, the "Jevons Paradox" also applies to the physical world.

Towards Abundance

The goal of large-scale industrial engineering is abundance. The United States will once again achieve self-sufficiency, enabling large-scale, low-cost production. Moving beyond material scarcity is crucial: in the long run, if we do indeed lose a significant portion of white-collar jobs to AI, we must be able to maintain a high quality of life for the public. And as AI drives profit margins to zero, consumer goods will become extremely affordable, automatically fulfilling this objective.

My view is that different sectors of the economy will "take off" at different speeds, and the transformation in almost all areas will be slower than Citrini anticipates. To be clear, I am extremely bullish on AI and foresee a day when my own labor will be obsolete. But this will take time, and time gives us the opportunity to devise sound strategies.

At this point, preventing the kind of market collapse Citrini imagines is actually not difficult. The U.S. government's performance during the pandemic has demonstrated its proactive and decisive crisis response. If necessary, massive stimulus policies will quickly intervene. Although I am somewhat displeased by its inefficiency, that is not the focus. The focus is on safeguarding material prosperity in people's lives—a universal well-being that gives legitimacy to a nation and upholds the social contract, rather than stubbornly adhering to past accounting metrics or economic dogma.

If we can maintain sharpness and responsiveness in this slow but sure technological transformation, we will eventually emerge unscathed.

Source: Original Post Link

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