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The U.S. labor market is experiencing a "speed bump moment," with next week's job revisions potentially reaching 800,000.
BlockBeats News, September 5th, if the market's prediction of tepid US job growth in August and the unemployment rate rising to 4.3% proves accurate, it will confirm the weakness in the labor market and definitively seal the deal on the Fed's rate cut this month. Currently, US job growth seems to have entered a "stall" phase, with economists attributing it to President Trump's comprehensive import tariffs and immigration crackdown that has reduced the labor force participation. The weakness in the labor market is mainly on the hiring side.
Economists expect that nonfarm payrolls will increase by 75,000 last month, compared to the 73,000 increase in July. Earlier, job data for May and June were significantly revised down by a total of 258,000, which infuriated Trump last month. Trump used this as a reason to dismiss Bureau of Labor Statistics Commissioner Erika McEntarfer and accused her of manipulating jobs data.
When the Bureau of Labor Statistics releases its preliminary revision estimates of the 12-month employment level ending in March on Tuesday, the sluggish job growth is likely to be confirmed. Based on the existing Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages (QCEW) data, economists estimate that employment levels could be revised downward by as much as 800,000. QCEW data comes from reports that employers submit to state unemployment insurance programs.
Economists estimate that the economy needs to create between 50,000 and 75,000 jobs each month just to keep up with the growth of the working-age population.
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