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Wall Street expects Powell to "hawkishly cut rates" this week, with the Fed facing its biggest internal dissent in years
BlockBeats News, December 8th, although another Fed rate cut is almost a foregone conclusion, the key issue is how Powell will articulate the prospect of further easing next month. With Fed policymakers increasingly divided between hawkish and dovish stances, Powell will have to navigate a difficult balancing act at this week's central bank meeting. Wall Street expects this to be a "hawkish rate cut," meaning that after joining the dovish camp with a rate cut this month, Powell may avoid signaling a rate cut in January next year to appease the hawks within the Fed.
An analyst at Bank of America said in a report last Friday: "Powell is facing the most divided committee in recent years. Therefore, we believe he will, like in October, try to balance the expected rate cut with a hawkish stance at the press conference." However, the Fed Chair has also consistently emphasized that policymakers have no preset path, and rate moves will depend on subsequent data releases. Therefore, Bank of America is skeptical that Powell can easily achieve this 'hawkish rate cut,' especially considering the release of a significant amount of market-moving data between the two meetings, some of which have been delayed due to the government shutdown.
Likewise, Michael Feroli, Chief U.S. Economist at JPMorgan, said he expects Powell to emphasize that following this week's rate cut, rates will be close to the neutral level. Therefore, any additional easing will depend on a substantial deterioration in the labor market rather than being based on risk management. (Jinshi)
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