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Wintermute: Despite the continued favorable macro environment, the crypto market has performed very poorly, and the "four-year cycle" theory is no longer applicable.
BlockBeats News, November 4th, Cryptocurrency market maker Wintermute released a long article stating that the current macro environment is still positive: rate cuts, the end of quantitative tightening (QT), the stock market nearing its peak, but cryptocurrency is still lagging behind, and post-FOMC meeting fund flows are retracting.
Global liquidity is expanding, but capital is not flowing into the crypto space. ETF fund inflows are stagnant, and Tokenized Asset Trading (TAT) activity is drying up, with only stablecoins continuing to grow. The overall market structure is healthy—leverage has been cleaned up, positions are clean, but to usher in a new round of gains, the return of funds to ETFs or TAT will be a key signal.
The current issue is not "lack of liquidity" but "liquidity going elsewhere." Global liquidity is indeed expanding. Central banks around the world are cutting rates amid a strong economic backdrop, a rare scenario that usually heralds a strong risk appetite cycle about to unfold. However, this new liquidity has not flowed into the crypto market as it did in the past. ETF funds are stagnant, TAT activity is drying up, overall liquidity is sufficient, but the share flowing into crypto has significantly decreased.
The "four-year cycle" theory no longer applies. The miner supply and halving logic that drove price cycles in the past have little influence in a mature market. What truly drives prices now is liquidity.
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